We’re back with a pick on this Thunder vs. Nuggets series. We picked up a win on the underdog (Denver) with our breakdown and play on the Game 5 meeting on Tuesday (Denver Nuggets vs. Thunder pick). That play worked out much better than our pick last night on the Maple Leafs. That was embarrassing (for the Leafs and for us).
Tonight, the Nuggets get the Oklahoma City Thunder back home in Denver for Game 6 of their best-of-7, Western Conference semifinals series. OKC leads the series 3-2.
Series Recap
Oklahoma City has seized momentum, winning back-to-back games to flip a 2-1 deficit into a 3-2 series lead. The Thunder edged out a gritty 92-87 win in Denver in Game 4, then held on for a 112-105 victory at home in Game 5. Despite the win, OKC failed to cover as a 10.5-point favorite, needing a +15 margin in the fourth quarter to pull away. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was special, dropping 31 points as all five Thunder starters finished in double figures.
However, the Thunder’s stellar regular season ATS record (55-23-4) hasn’t carried over to the playoffs, where they’re just 3-6 ATS thus far. Oklahoma City hasn’t covered in any of their last four road playoff games.
Denver’s Home Edge & Playoff Experience
Denver’s offense struggled in Game 5, shooting just 41% from the field and a cold 28% from beyond the arc. Even so, Nikola Jokic showed up, pouring in 44 points on 17-for-25 shooting and grabbing 15 boards. An interesting note: Denver has only won in this series when they’ve scored more than 106 points-a number they’re more likely to reach at home.
While we wouldn’t say the Nuggets have thrived with their backs against the wall, they have performed well in these spots. In the first round, they won Game 5 at home by 16 and Game 7 by 19, covering both times. This is a battle-tested group led by what we believe is the best player in the world right now…Jokic, supported by a proven playoff performer in Jamal Murray. Denver finished the regular season with the NBA’s fourth-best offensive rating, and with the altitude advantage and home crowd, we expect a bounce-back performance.
With the Thunder still the youngest team in the NBA and struggling to cover on the road, this is a decent spot to play Denver as a home underdog. The Nuggets are 17-11 ATS with Jokic and Murray together after a playoff loss.
Play: We’re on Denver +4.5 at home to force a Game 7.