It was a dry Sunday night in the Holliday house last weekend, as I’d promised myself and Mrs. Holliday a glass of 2022 Hannah’s from Los Millics Vineyard if the Cardinals and Jets could hit on the Over play. Wah, wah. The Cards did their part, putting up 31, and while it looked good for a while with the set-up – quick scoring drives from Arziona, combined with a lopsided score that meant New York was going to have to start airing out – Aaron Rodgers and the Jets never did have any success airing it out. I didn’t have any success in the column ringing up losses everywhere.
I have another Total play this week, along with a play from an off-the-radar college game, and I head to New England for a pick from the Pats-Rams matchup. If we can score a win and cover in that Tulane college play, in honor of a Green Wave win in Louisiana, we’ll duck into some Cajun Seafood Stew from one of our local places.
Good luck this week everyone!
Navy vs. Tulane
This is a tough test for Navy, facing a Tulane team that is demonstrably better than them on both sides of the ball. They can dominate with their run game, which opens up a downfield passing attack with QB Darian Mensah. And they run a lot, forcing defenses up, which is why they have an almost 10-yard YPA to go along with a 65% completion rate. The Middies are overmatched.
// Play: I’m on Tulane -7
“Playing against KC as an underdog is going against big trends, with Mahomes’ record of 12-1-1 ATS as a dog”
Rams vs. Patriots
Back to the scene of the crime, with a play against the Patriots as an underdog. It was a complete whiff last week on my play on the other side of New England. And now I’m lining up behind a non-conference road favorite, laying over a field goal, traveling across the country, on a short-week, off a loss to a mid-AFC team. That’s a lot stacked up against the visitor.
The Rams struggled vs. Miami, moving the ball, but making mental mistakes at critical times, leading to field goals, or punts that should have been first downs or TDs. This week, vs. the Pats, we expect them to clean it up, under the leadership of Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford. Speaking of McVay and Stafford, those two provide a pretty solid edge over the New England coach-QB tandem. The Pats have one two of three. Those three games were vs. the Jets, Titans and Bears. LA brings a different level of challenge. They’re not going to sack Stafford nine times (like they did Caleb Williams) and now have to face one of the best offensive coaches in the game, McVay, off a very disappointing performance. Look again at that lineup of three teams, with the Bears, Jets and Titans and rank where the offensive minds on those staffs come in. The Rams bounce back with a win and cover.
// Play: I’m taking the Rams -4.5
Chiefs vs. Bills
Every week seemingly the Chiefs flirt with losing their first game of the season, and each time they find a way to pull out the win (see last week’s blocked FG). The Bills are a tough opponent, with maybe the only QB that can match Patrick Mahomes’ heroics. This is the toughest test for the Chiefs, a team with flaws that the Bills can take advantage of. Playing against KC as an underdog is going against big trends (getting points Mahomes has a record of 12-1-1 against the spread in their last 14 as a dog), but we’ll lay the points.
// Play: I’m on the Bills -2.5