Last Week: 2-1 ATS
Season: 14-12 ATS
I ended the weekend with a 2-1 ATS record on my three plays, booking another winning weekend, but would still like to get on a real roll. That takes my overall record to a very mediocre 14-12 ATS on the season.
This week I have three more plays, all from the NFL card (I’ve dropped both the college plays I’ve given out in this column, so I thought I’d give Conference Championship week a pass here in the issue). I’ve highlighted two Total plays, and one side play.
Let’s dive right into the three plays. Good luck this week!
Game 1: Raiders at Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield to Mike Evans, repeat, Mayfield to Evans, plus add tight end Cade Otton into the mix vs. a horrific Raiders pass defense that hasn’t been able to stop a nosebleed. With Christian Wilkins as well as Malcolm Koonce out, I’m all “OVER’ this 1:00 ET match-up.
Since their bye week Bucky Irving has rushed for a combined 240 yards. The Raiders have the league’s worst rushing attack, averaging 78.1 yards per game; with pedestrian backs running behind a poor offensive line. The Buccaneers clamp down on the rush extremely well, so it will be up to quarterback Aidan O’Connell to keep them competitive. Tight end Brock Bowers should have a solid outing vs. a Buccaneers pass defense that’s ranked 30th, allowing an average of 258.3 yards per game. The Raiders have amassed 1,019 passing yards to their tight ends this season, ranked second trailing only the Chiefs.
2024 Angles
Non-Division home favorites of -7 or more points, with a total that’s 44.0 or higher have produced 8 Overs and 1 Under. Plus NFL home teams off back-to-back road wins have gone 9 Overs, 1 Under and 1 Push this season.
Totals between 41.5 to 49.5 and the Bucs
Tampa Bay is a perfect 7-0 to the Over when the totals have been greater than 41 and less than 50.Those seven games have a combined total of 405 points scored for an average combo score of 57.85 points per game.
Pick: I’ve played the Raiders and Buccaneers over 46 points.
Game 2: Seahawks at Cardinals
The Cardinals have 1 Over and 5 Unders in their last six games, while allowing an average of 16 points per game, and that includes away games at Miami, Seattle and Minnesota. The total is also 1-6-1 UNDER in Arizona’s last eight games. I also note the Seahawks are 1-5 UNDER in their last six contests. This is the second meeting between these two teams in the last three weeks after the Seahawks won 16-6 on November 24th. This is a battle for first place with Seattle at 7-5 vs. Arizona at 6-6. I anticipate another low scoring game.
The System
When there’s a final line of + or -3.5 points and when each team played on the road last week, play the Under when the visiting team (Seattle) is off a straight up road win. This system has 8 Overs and 32 Unders since 2021 (80%).
Pick: The Seahawks and Cardinals to stay UNDER 44.5 points.
Game 3: Browns at Steelers
These AFC North division foes recently played in a Cleveland snowstorm and the underdog Browns won straight up (24-19). Russell Wilson completed 75% of his passes for 270 yards. Pittsburgh has the rest advantage, as Cleveland played at Denver in a Monday night shootout loss (41-32). Jameis Winston threw for 497 yards with 4 touchdown tosses and 3 interceptions, two of which were returned for touchdowns.
Pittsburgh was involved in a high-scoring game in Cincinnati defeating the Bengals 44-38. Russell Wilson threw for 414 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Steelers are +15 in turnovers this season and with Winston’s tendency to toss interceptions the Steelers will pressure him (TJ Watt has 8.5 sacks this season). Cleveland struggles to run the ball and Pittsburgh only allows 91 rushing yards per game, 4.1 yards per carry. The weather forecast calls for sunny skies and a temperature of 48 F.
Pick: I’m playing on the Steelers -6.5 points.