Here’s one of Greg Dempson’s plays from his column this week. This pick is from the last game of the weekend, the much anticipated matchup between the Ravens and Bills, featuring Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. They’re closing out the Divisional Round in Buffalo Sunday evening.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills
These two teams met in the Divisional round four years ago with Buffalo favored by 2 points and winning 17-3. That was during the COVID lockdown in 2020. This time around the atmosphere will be completely different, with a boisterous home crowd. In Lamar Jackson’s previous seven playoff games he is 3-4, but this time around Buffalo has to deal with a ground threat that features the most dangerous running back in the playoffs, and the most dangerous running QB, in Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson.
Perhaps this line movement of 2 points is justified as Baltimore is number one in yards per play margin (+1.6) as well as number one in DVOA. Buffalo is +0.5 in YPP margin and they rank fourth in DVOA. On September 29, the Ravens hosted the Bills and took them out to the woodshed when favored by 2.5 points (winning 35-10). Baltimore has won and covered five straight games with every win by at least 14 points in games vs. the Giants, Texans, Pittsburgh twice and Cleveland. This Bills team is definitely a step-up in class.
As of this update, the line has flipped from the Bills opening at -1 to now getting 1-point. For a quick walk down memory lane, the last time Buffalo was a home underdog in the playoffs the Beatles were still happily making music together. It was January 1st in 1967 when they hosted the Chiefs getting +3.5 points. That did not go well, as the Chiefs cruised to a 31-7 win and advanced to the Super Bowl.
The Bills have scored 30+ points in 10 of their last 11 games (excluding that meaningless Week 18er in New England). Josh Allen has 20 touchdowns and only one turnover in his last seven games and the Bills have gone 9-0 straight up at home this season. Allen is having the best season of his career, as he has 30 touchdowns vs. six interceptions, plus he’s rushed for nearly 600 yards as well as 12 touchdowns. Buffalo has allowed only 16 sacks in 18 games. When the Bills have the better regular season straight up record they are 15-2 straight up and 11-5-1 ATS at home in the playoffs since 1989.
Pick: My pick is on the Buffalo Bills +1
Good luck this week!