Let’s not get all misty eyed, as we head into the final weekend of the NFL, although I have to admit, I’m feeling a tad melancholy. It’s been a fun football season, with the usual ups and downs.
I went 1-1 in my last column, taking my overall season record in my weekly column to 34-16-1 against the spread, which I’m very happy with (flirting with 70% on 50 picks). I’ll take it.
On to the Super Bowl we go. With my usual Top 5 rankings that tee up y columns, I’ve focused on, rather predictably I’m guessing, the top five Super Bowls I’ve watched over the past 25 years or so, or since I’ve started actually watching, and paying attention to the game as a youngster hanging with my Dad to settle in and catch the big game.
Below the chatter about best Super Bowls, I have a prop play. I’ll post another in my column, as well as a play on the side.
5. Super Bowl XXXII (1998) – Denver Broncos 31, Green Bay Packers 24
Being a big Elway fan, and never a big Favre fan, this was sweet. I was young and just starting to get into the NFL at this time, but John Elway and Terrell Davis were two of my favorite players. And they showed up big. I didn’t know anything about point spreads at the time, but found out years later that the Broncos were big underdogs, pulling off the upset. I can still picture exactly the moment of Elway’s “helicopter” spin while scrambling for a first down (I was heading to the bathroom as I’d had about five Dr. Peppers, and just stayed long enough to watch that play before sprinting down the hall. This win put a halt to the NFC’s 13-year Super Bowl winning streak.
4. Super Bowl XLIII (2009) – Pittsburgh Steelers 27, Arizona Cardinals 23
Remember James Harrison’s 100-yard pick-six right before halftime. It looked great for the Steelers almost all game, until Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald got hot and brought the Cards back. Fitzgerald’s 64-yard touchdown with two and half minutes remaining put the Cardinals ahead 23-20. Could the Arizona D stop Big Ben? Ahhh, no they couldn’t. Ben engineered an iconic drive, finishing with the cherry on top – that cherry being the perfect back-shoulder throw to Santonio Holmes, who made a tiptoe catch in the back of the end zone with 35 seconds left for one the most clutch plays in Super Bowl history.
3. Super Bowl LI (2017) – New England Patriots 34, Atlanta Falcons 28 (OT)
This one had to be here, although I was pulling hard for the Falcons. Still can’t believe they screwed this up. In what is the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history. Atlanta somehow found a way to let a 28-3 lead midway through the third quarter get away from them. Tom Brady and the Patriots had something to do with it of course, but there is no way they should have had the opportunity to get close. Julian Edelman’s miraculous fingertip catch is a memory of course. He doesn’t make that, they lose. The Pats tied the game and forced the first overtime in Super Bowl history. Of course, New England won the coin toss and Atlanta never saw the ball again. Stunning.
2. Super Bowl XLII (2008) – New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14
18-0. New England was going for the perfect season, and on the verge of crushing the souls of those 1972 Miami Dolphins that still do a toast every year when the last remaining undefeated team lost their first game. They all thought their claim to being the only undefeated team in NFL history was done. Until it wasn’t. How the Giants managed to hold that offense with Tom Brady and Randy Moss to 14 points is a story unto itself. The pass rush was relentless. And then Eli Manning took the ball down by four with 2:39 left, giving us the unforgettable “Helmet Catch,” where David Tyree pinned the ball to his head while falling to the ground, followed by the go-ahead TD to Plaxico Burress with 35 seconds left on the clock. You couldn’t relax handing the ball back to Brady, even with only 35 seconds, but the Giants’ defense sealed it by pressuring Brady into a last-second incompletion – shattering the dreams of an unbeaten season and sending champagne corks popping for the ’72 Dolphins team members who were still alive.
1. Super Bowl XLIX (2015) – New England Patriots 28, Seattle Seahawks 24
This one had it all. Wild momentum swings, star performances, epic plays – and this was all before one of the most memorable finishes in Super Bowl history. The Patriots trailed 24-14 in the fourth quarter, but Brady led two surgical touchdown drives to take a late 28-24 lead. Seattle responded, driving to the 1-yard line in the final seconds. With Marshawn Lynch in the backfield, the Seahawks called that infamous passing play. Queue Malcolm Butler and the interception heard round the world. What a game.
Super Bowl Prop Play
While I expect Travis Kelce to garner a lot of attention, Noah Gray has been an efficient outlet for Mahomes. Also, the Eagles’ defensive tendencies play into Gray getting a few looks (they’re great vs. wideouts, but do give up receptions to tight ends). He doesn’t get a lot of targets, hence the line of Over 1.5 receptions, but Mahomes trusts him. With an aggressive Eagles’ pass rush, he’s a reliable out in 12 personnel (two TE sets). Look for him to find soft spots in that zone coverage and grab a couple of passes in KC’s quick-passing attack.
Pick: Noah Gray Over 1.5 Receptions (+110)