Talk about running on fumes. I feel like Cousin Eddie as he guides the old motor home, running on empty, to the Griswold’s on Christmas Eve. I’ve been leaking oil bad the last two weeks, ringing up an 0-for-4. What had been a rather shiny record all season has now been nicked up. I went from 36-19-1 ATS, to 36-23-1 now heading to Super Bowl. That’s the betting life.
Mrs. Holliday’s has been none too impressed to say the least. Our Sunday night dining plans have been shot to hell these last two weekends, as no winners means no celebratory themed cuisine. She’s been giving me the side-eye with all this losing. Forget that she doesn’t know I play all these games as well, so the sports betting account has taken a broadside hit.
Here’s hoping we can get this turned around for Super Bowl weekend.
“Uber Eats” Play
With that, let’s set out what a possible Super Bowl Sunday dinner will look like if I can pull off a win. It’ll be ribs and burnt ends basted in that sweet thick sauce. Toss in hickory pit beans, cheesy corn and creamy coleslaw for sides and we’ll be set. Mrs. Holliday is out shopping for more napkins and the beans, which she’ll make at home, as I write this (not kidding)
Next week, post-Super Bowl, and in the weeks to come, I’ll have college basketball picks, some NBA, and sprinkle in some golf in my column.
Super Bowl Play
No question, the Eagles looked good in their Conference Championship game, pretty good in the Divisional round, and truthfully, only so-so Wild Card weekend. But overall, I think we can all agree this is an impressive roster that creates real advantages. That said, this team has relied on some very favorable turnover numbers the past several weeks. In their last five games, they are +4, +2, +4, +4, +3. I have no idea if another team has topped those numbers over a five-game span, and I’m sure they have at some point, but those are eye-popping stats. Philly is +17 in turnovers the last five starts. I don’t see that type of good fortune continuing vs. a KC team that doesn’t make a habit of racking up self-inflicted wounds. Philly can’t expect to be handed the ball through turnovers.
There’s obviously a lot more to the handicapping than turnover regression, but I do see the Chiefs doing what they love to do, which is getting to third and short, and converting, over and over again. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have perfected the art of “doing what’s needed to get the win”. If you score 29, like the Bills did, we’ll score just a few more. We’ve seen the routine and I believe we will see it one more time. I’ll trust Mahomes and Reid over Sirianni and Hurts.
Play: Taking KC -1.5