These teams met in the Super Bowl just two years ago, but there are plenty of things that will make it a completely different game this time. The head coaches are the same, the QBs are the same, and many of the key players that will be asked to make a difference are the same. But still, these are two different teams, with different journeys to the Super Bowl and adjusted approaches when compared to 24 months ago.
The oddsmakers hung the Chiefs as 1.5-point favorites out of the gate, and it looks like they nailed the number, as it hasn’t moved, and the action has been pretty even.
Many of the trends and narratives surrounding Super Bowl 59 favor the Kansas City Chiefs making history with an unprecedented three-peat. No team has ever accomplished the feat, but since the split up of Brady and Belichick, if anyone can, it’s Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid.
But not so fast on pumping out the Three-Peat hats. This version of the Philadelphia Eagles does pose a very legitimate challenge.
Can The Eagles Flip the Script?
Philadelphia arrives with an O-line that is capable of imposing their will on this game, as they’ve done so many times this season. That advantage can’t be underestimated. It’s the engine that drives this offensive unit. It’s why, yes even more important than Saquon, this Eagles team boasts one of, if not the best, ground attack in the league (we might give the Ravens a nod as well).
Barkley does of course add that dynamic ground threat the Eagles didn’t have in their Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs two years ago. On a personal milestone note for Barkley, he’s closing in on history, sitting just 30 rushing yards shy of Terrell Davis’ rushing record (2,447 yards in a season, including playoffs). A record that is shared with those big guys up front. Thanks to that line, it’s been one of the most impressive rushing seasons in league history.
What Up On Defense?
Defensively, the Eagles boast the No. 1 defense in the NFL under Coach Fangio, though stopping Mahomes is a monumental challenge – thanks for that Captain Obvious. Kansas City’s offense hasn’t been as explosive this year as in the past, but no team, or Coach-QB combo (Reid and Mahomes) is more elite than them at situational football. Philadelphia’s defense can generate pressure without blitzing (but they definitely will), which is a nice edge. Their secondary, which is very good, has shut down better receiving corps than they’ll face here. But of course, there’s always the caveat of who’s at QB. Mahomes changes the equation.
The Edge
Kansas City is a sparkling 14-3 ATS (against the spread) in the playoffs with Mahomes under center. It’s so hard to bet against him in what is basically a straight up winner game, with the small spread…but we’re going to. KC has the better QB and head coach, two big keys in a Super Bowl matchup. Going against Philly is also their strength of schedule over the course of the season (and playoffs), which hasn’t been on par with what the Chiefs have faced. But still, with all that, we’re looking for the Eagles to have the edge along the line on both sides of the ball. The result should be a running game they can rely on heavily, particularly in the second half, and a Fangio defensive game plan that is disruptive enough to stall drives, and get Mahomes off the field on a few critical drives.
Winner’s Edge Play: We’re on the underdog Eagles