Definitely not happy to hear the news about CJ Gardner-Johnson limping off the field mere minutes before we were going to post this, but here we go. Very, very early indications are this could be more than a sprain.strain. Regardless, we’ll soldier on with this NFL Divisional Future Pick.
The AFC South has been messy the past few years. Somewhere along the way to this being a division dominated by two of the best pivots in the game competing every season (DeShaun Watson in Houston and Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville) things went off the rails. Watson is long gone…no need to dive into all of that, and the clock is seriously ticking on whether Lawrence can be an impact QB in this league. If it doesn’t happen this season, will it ever?
This is a division that’s followed a recent pattern of crowning a new champ every year and, frankly, as hinted to above, more plot twists than any Real Housewives season. But for us, as we look to park a few dollars in the AFC South mix before the season kicks off, let’s try and cut through the fog and find a winning ticket.
Why Houston? Because Defense Travels… and Wins
This Texans’ defense? Backbone material. That front seven is very disruptive, paced by Will Anderson Jr. terrorizing backfields, backed by a ball-hawking secondary. This is a unit that should be ready to take another step-forward in 2025, creating significant issues for their divisional foes when they go head-to-head. Whether it’s Indy, Tennessee or Jacksonville, we don’t see a significant challenge from any of those offensive units.
When this Houston offense sputters here and there, and they will, the defense will be there to pick up the slack and keep this team right there (as they did many times last season).
About That Offense – Betting on the Bounce
Sure, there are concerns. Joe Mixon is on the mend, Stefon Diggs took his routine elsewhere (maybe not the worst subtraction), and the backfield looks more committee than cavalry. That said, Nick Chubb should be an important contributor.
None of the moves, and players stepping up, or not, matter if C.J. Stroud doesn’t have a bounceback year. There’s been no-end to the handwringing, but let’s tap the brakes a bit. Even in a “down” year, facing a very difficult schedule of defenses, Stroud still flashed the skills that put him into the “superstar” category the previous year, but he was inconsistent and struggled way more than anyone expected. Looking at the underlying numbers, and trusting that another year of experience is a foundational piece for a big leap forward, we like C.J. to get back into the conversation as one of the top QBs in the league again. He’s already the division’s best quarterback, which isn’t insignificant.
Sizing Up the Division
Jacksonville Jaguars (+300): Trevor Lawrence remains more “promise” than performance, and their road defense gave up nearly 420 yards per game last year. For yet another season, the storyline in Jacksonville is all about “potential” and hope. We expect another roller coaster ride (although we do see Lawrence taking a meaningful step forward). .
Indianapolis Colts (+350): Anthony Richardson and/or Daniel Jones. Not a lot of weapons to support either. This lineup does not inspire us.
Tennessee Titans (+775): Rookie Cam Ward is intriguing, but expecting him to out-Stroud Stroud (or out-Daniels Jayden Daniels and become the third straight rookie-QB to slice the league up) is likely wishful thinking. It’s going to take some time..
The Bet: Texans -105 to Win the South
We’ll take the small fav number at -105, and dive in on the Houston Texans. We see some value here, backing the most balanced, least mistake-prone team. The Texans have the defense, the best QB of the four, and a schedule that doesn’t create nightmares for this coaching staff. We have a floor, and a chance for a high ceiling.
We’ll back them to repeat as AFC South champs.
Play: The Houston Texans -105