They’re baaaack! For the seventh year in a row the Chiefs are playing in the AFC Championship game. Inevitable? Implausible? Incredible? All terms used to describe the Chiefs’ historic dominance as they host their sixth edition of what Fox Sports Nick Wright called the “Arrowhead Invitational.” All season, the Chiefs have gotten the side-eye from analysts and football fans alike as they ground their way to win after one-score win. And the prize for making it this far is a date with Josh Allen and the Bills.
Who Are We On?
Look no further if you want to get to the play without all the context. We’re on the Kansas City Chiefs -1.5.
The Line
The line has hovered around 1.5 to 2 all week. It settled in at -2 across the board for a few days, but as we moved into Thursday, 1.5’s started to show again. If you are going along with the Chiefs, really try and find a 1.5, as it could matter.
Why The Chiefs?
This may sound rather elementary, but let’s start with the Chiefs are the better team, playing at home, where they never lose in the playoffs. All respect to Josh Allen, but this is a Bills’ team that travels to Arrowhead with a number of weak spots. Weak spots that QB Allen has been able to cover over with his play. He’s a superstar. But after Josh, the drop-off all over is significant.
Patrick Mahomes is a superstar. But the drop-off from him to other positions isn’t nearly as stark. Sure, KC had what could be termed a sluggish regular season (sounds funny to say for a team that lost only one “real” game – and that was to these Bills).
We give a solid edge to this KC offense vs. a Bills’ defense that has issues, including having a few starters banged up, something they can’t afford. Add in we like Chiefs’ defense and Coach Spagnuolo to execute a gameplan that, while you can’t stop Allen, limits big plays, and doesn’t allow him to be the difference.
Chiefs Numbers
The Chiefs are 15-2 in the playoffs over the last five years, with all 15 of those wins coming by more than two points. Buffalo has dropped three straight playoff games vs. KC, with each loss being by 2 points or more.
Prop Plays
If you’re looking for a prop play or two, we have our eye on these.
Dalton Kincaid Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-118)
Tight ends can eat vs. the Chiefs. Josh will look for Kincaid.
Xavier Worthy Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-118)
Worthy has emerged as the #2 option after Kelce, including on short and intermediate routes. Coach Reid has drawn up several screens and crossing slants for him, which he can break.
Play
The Bills’ defense will have their hands full. We’re backing playoff form Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo to show up at home in Arrowhead (with a healthy roster) and take care of business.
We’re on the Chiefs -1.5