OSU is the favorite in the CFP Championship. What do you think of that Lou Holtz? That was a rhetorical question…we already know. Here’s a short and sweet overview from the crew here at Winner’s Edge. Nick and Jason have both weighed in (these two have combined for a 73% overall winning percentage on their college plays in their weekly columns, on over 50 picks). What we have here is two really good defenses; one will be facing a good offense, and one will be facing a mediocre offense. Both defenses can handle the run and get pressure.
The Buckeyes’ defensive line has dominated in these playoff games, producing 16 sacks while only giving up an average of 62 rushing yards per game. That rushing stat is a bit misleading, as teams had to shift away from the run at times based on game script (they were trailing), but we still get the idea. They’ve been good at controlling opponents’ rush attacks. This goes head-to-head with Notre Dame’s strength, paced by QB Riley Leonard and RB Jeremiyah Love.
Leonard can be a problem for a defense. He’s the one that consistently moves the chains. There’s not a lot to be concerned about when he drops back to pass, but as a runner, he can do damage. This will be a central focus of the Buckeyes’ defense. If they can keep Leonard in the pocket, or at least somewhat contain his runs, the Irish offense will stall. Add in the injury issues up front, which now includes LT Anthonie Knapp after the Penn State game, and we really like the matchup for the Ohio State defensive unit vs. the Notre Dame offense.
A measure of success for ND last week vs. Penn State was due to the fact the Nittany Lions QB Drew Allar was awful. He didn’t complete a single pass to a wide receiver. That won’t be the case tonight for this Irish defensive unit. They’ll need to have a plan for Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate, as Ohio State brings a completely different level with their passing game.
Notre Dame’s offense doesn’t have the weapons to keep up if they get behind. Being forced to rely on the passing game has proven to be treacherous for Ohio State’s opponents in the playoffs (and they faced good passing offenses, with Indiana finishing first in Passing Success Rate, Oregon ninth and Texas 34th). Each of those teams had an offense that could pass, with impressive skill players on the perimeter, but struggled. QB Leonard is not at the level of Dillon Gabriel, nor Quinn Ewers, the last two QBs Ohio State faced (and beat). This could snowball for a Notre Dame team that doesn’t have a vertical attack.
We’re not qualified to run a Div 1 college offense, but if we may, we do suggest that OC Chip Kelly toss that game plan for Texas in the trash bin. The one where he ignored their elite talent on the outside and committed to screens and quick-hit throws around the line of scrimmage. Just our humble suggestion. Let’s open this up.
Coach Day has faced six ranked opponents this season, posting a record of 5-1 SU and ATS. In four of those five wins, they easily covered the number. We see Ohio State winning this game. We’re not overly excited about laying this many points, but if the Buckeyes win, which we believe they will, we’ll bank on them also covering the number.
Pick: The Winner’s Edge team is on Ohio State -8.5