Greg Dempson has a couple of plays from this week’s NFL schedule. You can also receive two to three extra plays from Greg heading into the weekend games in the Winner’s Edge Patreon.
Back to it this week with two more plays. In last week’s column, I ended up 1-1 with my picks, getting the win and cover with the Falcons over the Cowboys, but dropping the Total play. I had the “Over” in the Colts and Vikings matchup, which never got close. It was 7-0 at half-time, meaning I only needed them to come up with 40 points in the second half. No chance. So we tread water for another week. I haven’t been able to get on a run yet with these column picks, sitting a game above .500. Let’s see if I can knock down a 2-0 week with these two.
Talk about going back to the well. For the third week in a row I’m highlighting a game involving the Atlanta Falcons. This week in an NFC South divisional matchup vs. New Orleans. After beginning the season at 2-0 while scoring 40 or more in back-to-back games, the Saints have now lost seven in a row. The incompetence became too much to bear for ownership after having to watch that loss last Sunday to the lowly Panthers. They’d seen enough, which meant asking head coach Dennis Allen for his security pass to the building, relieving him of his duties. Stepping in as the interim head coach is Darren Rizzi, their special teams coordinator since 2022.
The Falcons, on the other hand, improved to 6-3 as they defeated the Cowboys (27-21), kicking off that game as a 3.5-point home favorite. Atlanta has won two consecutive games straight up and ATS, covering both. They’ve gone 5-1 in their last six, while scoring 27 or more points in four of their last five contests. Kirk Cousins has thrown for 17 touchdowns and 2,328 passing yards, (third in the league) vs. seven interceptions. They’ve won their last five games by 5 or more points.
Derek Carr’s return from an oblique injury, suffered in Week 5 vs. the Chiefs, didn’t stop the bleeding for New Orleans, even though he completed 18 out of 31 passes. The Saints’ defense has allowed 23 or more points in six straight games, losing four of their last five contests by 10 or more points. New Orleans is struggling on both sides of the ball right now and are a negative 22 in points scored vs. allowed in their nine starts this season. Tuesday they shipped four time pro bowl cornerback Marshon Latimore to the Commanders, signaling it’s time for a rebuild. The Saints are projected to have a negative 68.4 million dollars in 2025 cap space, worst in the league, so rebuilding will be a monumental task. All of the above (and more) has me on the Falcons this week.
Falcons vs. Saints
All of the above (and more) has me on the Falcons this week. As I write this, there are 3s and 3.5s out there. I’m seeing -3 laying juice (from -116 to -123 right now). At my main outs, it’s right around -120. I’ll lay the extra juice to get the 3.
Pick: I’ve played the Falcons -3 points (-120)
Titans at Chargers
The Chargers enter this contest with a 5-3 straight up record and head coach Jim Harbaugh has already matched their win total from last season when they went 5-12. In those five victories, three of them have been by 17 or more points, plus all five wins have been by 10 or more points.
Their defense has been lights out as they have held their eight opponents to an average of 12.6 points per game, ranking number one in points allowed with the overall number one defense in the league. The Chargers are the sixth team to hold their first eight opponents to 20 points or less since 1990. In their three games following their bye week, LA is averaging 21.33 points per game.
On the other side, the Titans are averaging a meager 17.5 points per game while exceeding more than 20 points but once in eight games. Tennessee is ranked 29th on offense and a respectable #12 on defense. Last week Mason Rudolph tossed two touchdown passes in their 20-17 overtime victory when hosting the Patriots. Apparently Will Levis will get the start this week which, in my estimation, is a step down in class vs. Rudolph.
With 3 and 7 points as the two most common “land on” numbers in the NFL, I’ve opted to lay the juice to play the Chargers at -7 (-125) in this one over Tennessee.
Pick: I’m taking the LA Chargers at -7 (-125)
Have a great week everyone!
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