- Line: Bills -2
- Total: 46
Win in the regular season, lose in the playoffs. The Bills have fallen into a familiar pattern vs. this arch-nemesis. A pattern they’d desperately like to change. Although change without losing the “win in the regular season” part. In his last four regular season starts vs. KC, Josh Allen has balled out, with nine TDs and two interceptions, with a pair of rushing majors mixed in. He’s outplayed his counterpart, the anointed best player in the game, in these starts, but it’s always been January meetings vs. AFC teams that Mahomes focuses on, and takes your heart out.
Buffalo is 0-3 straight up in those playoff meetings, but good news for them, the playoffs are a couple of months away. And it’s not like Josh has wilted in those big games. In two of those post-season meetings, Allen was one of, if not the, best player for either side, with seven TDs and one interception. Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves, as we do anticipate another playoff battle between these two, the cream of the AFC crop. Both teams are holding up their end of the deal at this point.
The Chiefs are undefeated, but have hardly gone unchallenged. You need not look any further back than last week’s win, which was, for all intents, a loss, to the Broncos, if it were not for a blocked chip shot field goal on the final play. The winning streak was over, until somehow they pulled another one out. That was the closest they got to a loss, but there have been other very close calls, calls where they could have easily lost. They’re clearly still committed to, and excited about winning these regular season games, as you could see from the sideline celebration after that blocked field goal, and the airplane spring Mahomes did around the stadium. But this is a team that knows it’s not what matters. It’s what happens after the regular season schedule has wrapped that matters to this team.
The Bills, at 8-2, are eyeing the playoffs as well, but in a different way. They haven’t had the success of the Chiefs, a success that allows for a sense of security and esteem that doesn’t impact your confidence one iota if they were to drop a marquee regular season game vs. a team that envisions you as a bitter rival (even if you don’t reciprocate).
This defense-first Chiefs team was outgained per-play by the Broncos, fell behind vs. the Bucs, should have lost to the Bengals, were outgained by almost a year per play by San Fran, and on it goes. None of them could finish them off, including the Ravens on opening night. This is Reid and Mahomes, as underdogs, in a situation where all they do is cover the spread (12-1-1 ATS last 14), but this consistent inefficiency and lack of explosiveness is an issue. Some concern about the injury issues at receiver for Buffalo, something that’s been talked about all season for the Chiefs, but we’ll go against the trends pointing to a Kansas City play, and lay the small number with Josh Allen, looking for him to have a huge day making plays to keep the offense moving.
NFL Total Plays: We’ll also have a play on the Total in this one posted up Saturday afternoon in the Winner’s Edge Patreon
Pick: We’re on the Bills to get the win and cover.