Last week in the inaugural NHL Picks column, we made a big deal about the parameters we like to adhere to, along the lines of trying to only highlight plays that fall between -125 and +125, mixed in with a handful of larger underdogs. We do know that it isn’t always going to be that clean, as we make these selections sometimes a few days before the games, and the lines can fluctuate from the draft lines we put together in the office.
We bring this up as we tabbed a play on the Leafs in St. Louis last Saturday; a game in which we were so far off on the line when it came out. It came out at -180, a line we would never suggest a play on, or play ourselves. But there the play was in the issue. And of course it lost, dragging down what would have been an otherwise solid start to the NHL plays. We did end up making a small profit on a 3-2 record, despite the Leafs choking that one up.
We have five more plays this week. We also gave out two plays today in the Winner’s Edge Patreon. Check them out.
- Season Record: 3-2
- Profit: +0.57 units
Friday – November 8, 2024
Vegas vs. Seattle
The Kraken have been doing a lot of losing, while Vegas has been knocking down wins almost every night out, beating good teams along the way. The Knights welcomed Connor McDavid back from injury Wednesday night, holding him off the scoreboard in securing a 4-2 road win. That pushes their record to 6-1 in their last seven. The Kraken are finally back home for a game after spending 10 days on the road. They finished the road trip with losses to the Leafs, Senators (ouch), Bruins and Avalanche. Tonight they face a Vegas team off that Oilers win, and feeling good about themselves, as they should with their record. Seattle was a tied, and overwhelmed team facing the Avs in that final road start, and they looked it. There was very little pushback. We expect them to have a much better effort here. We’ll be getting a good number, in a good situation to back the home underdog.
Play: Take Seattle
Saturday – November 9, 2024
Dallas vs. Winnipeg
First real test for Dallas, aside from playing the Panthers twice in Finland, and losing. Back in North America, vs a divisional opponent that has been doing nothing but winning, this is a chance to see how they measure up at this point in the season. They have the lineup depth, talent and goaltending to match the Jets. We’ll be getting a decent number on a good visiting team that will be completely dialed in.
Play: Take the Stars
Edmonton vs. Vancouver
The first meeting of the season between these two Pacific Division rivals. The Canucks come in off a three-game swing down the coast, while the Oilers head Vancouver sporting a two game losing streak, having dropped back-to-back home games to the Devils and Vegas. That second loss was, rather surprisingly, with Connor McDavid back in the lineup. McDavid was held off the scoresheet, which we don’t see happening a second time. He should be a key in sparking the Oilers to a road win over a team they match up nicely against. Expect an inspired effort from the visitor.
Play: Take the Oilers.
Sunday – November 10, 2024
San Jose vs. New Jersey
Taking a shot with a big road underdog. Clearly one team is better than the other, but we like the set-up for the Sharks. New Jersey is recently back from a successful road trip out west, then back home for a game vs. Montreal, then off to play the islanders on Long Island last night (while San Jose was in town resting). Right after this game they head to Florida for two straight vs. the Panthers, and one up in Tampa. This meeting with the Sharks will be their third game in three days, packed around travel West, and three big games down in Florida. This one, vs. a non-conference bottom-feeder, could get lost in the shuffle for the Devils.
Play: Take the Sharks.
Tuesday – November 12, 2024
Calgary vs. Vancouver
As of this writing, the Canucks have lost five games this season. But only one really burns. Opening night, at home vs. these Flames. They were up big and all set to send the hometown fans into the Vancouver night to celebrate until they let up and Calgary stormed back and ruined the party.They get a shot at redemption tonight. The schedulemakers also did them a favor, serving them up a Flames team run ragged with travel and playing their third game in four nights.
Play: Take the Canucks -1.5 goals, plus money