Let’s have a look at that Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers matchup in the Wild Card round, with a Total play as well from the Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles matchup.
Playoff time. Love it. I was able to pick up a winner with last week’s pick, which is worth noting when you consider the season I’ve had so far. It’s been somewhat of a grind trying to get some momentum going with winning plays. On to the playoffs though. Looking forward to these next few weeks. I’ve got a couple of plays this week. Good luck!
In the past 10 seasons, rookie quarterbacks have struggled in their first road playoff starts. That would pertain to Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels. On January 15, 2021 Jalen Hurts made his first road playoff start against the Bucs, resulting in an Eagles loss by two touchdowns (31-15).
Jayden Daniels has been superb this season, but a quick review of the Commanders lack of success reveals the following – Washington has failed to cover the spread in their last three road games. When facing the three teams that made the playoffs this season that Washington played on the road, it was at Tampa Bay (+3.5 underdogs) in Week 1. They lost 37-10. Next up was at Baltimore in Week 6 as a 6.5-point underdog. They lost 30-23. And we have that Week 11 matchup in Philadelphia Week 11 as a 4-point road dog; a 26-18 loss. Going back to his college days as a post season performer, Daniels lost the 2022 SEC Championship Game vs. Georgia, plus he was knocked out of the 2023 game against Alabama.
O-Line
Washington’s offensive line allowed 50 sacks this season, including 20 in their last four games. The Buccaneers had 44 sacks this season including three in Week 1 vs the Commanders.
Special Teams
Washington’s kicker, Austin Seibert, was injured in mid-November and replaced by Zane Gonzalez, who prior to being the replacement kicker for the Commanders, hadn’t played since 2021. Gonzalez made 2 out of 4 field goals on the road at Dallas and Philadelphia. He missed his lone 50+ yard attempt but was perfect on extra points, going 19-out-of 19. Tampa Bay’s field goal and extra point kicker is Chase McLaughlin. McLaughlin made 32 out of 34 field goal attempts (93.8%). He kicked a 56-yarder this season and he was a perfect 22-out-of-22 from 49 yards or less.
Commanders vs. Buccaneers
Pick: My first selection is on the Buccaneers -3.
Love Hurts
Sorry I couldn’t resist. Scotland’s hard rock band Nazareth had a big hit in 1974 with Love Hurts. As we head into the Packers and Eagles Saturday matchup, we have Jordan Love dealing with an elbow injury, plus Jalen Hurts is moving through the concussion protocol – hence “Love Hurts!” (side note: the editor hates when I make these winding connections and references but he said he’ll let this sneak by. I guess I’ll know if he really did when I read the issue)
Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles Pick
The Eagles have been slow starters this season especially in the first quarter as well as the first half. I’m wondering if the tush-push will be in play with Hurts after he had those concussion symptoms last week? Also, with the injury to Love’s elbow, will Green Bay be able to run the ball with success so as to keep the pressure off Love and limit his pass attempts?
Since Week 10, both defenses are top-5 in EPA per play allowed. Philadelphia is number one and both defenses are top-10 in success rate allowed, with Philadelphia at number two. These teams are number two and number three in EPA allowed per drop-back. They are both top-7 in EPA allowed per rushing attempt. Since Week 10, the Eagles are allowing 16.4 points per game, and that includes five games against playoff teams. During that same time, the Packers’ defense has allowed 18 points per game and that list of opponents includes the 49ers, Miami, Detroit and Minnesota.
First Quarter Points
This is a “lean” for me. The Eagles averaged only 3.6 first quarter points all season, while the Packers averaged 6.4 for a combined 10 first quarter points. At home Philadelphia averaged only 3 first quarter points, while the Packers scored an average of 6.8 in the first quarter when on the road. The first quarter total is 9.5 points at every book where I have an account.
I have a lean to UNDER (a beer and pizza size wager, so nothing too heavy at all), and will be waiting to try and get a 10 on this one.
The First Half Total Play
As for the first half total, I see the best under number 23 at -115, as well as 23 at -122.
Pick: Pick number two this week is on the UNDER at 23 points in the first half.
Good luck with all your plays this week everyone!