The CFP is back, kicking off in the Orange Bowl in Miami with a Penn State vs. Notre Dame matchup. The last time these two met was in 2007, so who cares about that one (PSU won 31-10 btw), and this will be the first time these two programs have hooked up in a post-season format since way back in 1976 at the Gator Bowl. Enough of the memory lane stuff. Who do we like?
Another question would be are either of these teams a national championship calibre unit right now? ND did knock off Georgia. So check, I guess. That means something. Penn State’s road to here was a little less refined, shall we say. They beat an SMU team that was “just happy to here” in the first round, and then took out Boise State last week. That right there highlights a pretty significant difference in competition faced.
Also noteworthy for us was watching Drew Allar deal with the pressure that Boise State sent his way. The Nittany Lions were never in danger of losing that matchup, and Allar looked good for the most part, but it was surprising, at least for me, to not only see the Broncos get pressure vs. the PSU O-line (they gave up four sacks), but the coaching staff, nor Allar, nor that line, were able to adjust and back the pressure off. That was one weakness that jumped out during that Fiesta Bowl win. Notre Dame has a defensive line that can create issues. More so than Boise State’s that’s for sure. This has to be an area of concern for PSU’s coaching staff, and backers.
On the other side, the injury issues Penn State’s defensive end Abdul Carter is managing is another area of real concern. He’s listed as a game time decision, but I have to believe, even if he does go, he can’t be close to 100%. That’s a big blow to that D unit, as Carter is one of the best players in the country on the defensive side of the ball. This guy can wreck an offense, but if he’s nursing that shoulder, or doesn’t play at all, it’s a game-changer.
You’re likely to read about James Franklin’s past failures as a coach when asked to step up and win a big game. The numbers are not pretty for him (I believe he’s something like 1-14 straight up vs. Top 5 ranked teams). He’s started to shed some of that narrative this season, but way back there in my head, there’s still that lingering feeling about Franklin.
I’m going to be backing Marcus Freeman and the Fighting Irish. I believe they can keep the chains moving, while getting pressure on Allar. They’ll need an answer, of course, for TE Warren, but I trust they’ll have a plan that, at the very least, doesn’t allow Allar and Warren to dominate. Should be a good one.
I went 1-1 ATS with my picks in the WE magazine last week, making it two weeks in a row of spinning my wheels. That 1-1 mark takes my overall season record to 34-18-1 as we head into the final few games of the college season, and the NFL playoffs. Enjoy the games and good luck!
Play: I’m on the Fighting Irish at -1.