We started this morning looking at a few prop play options, including Jokic staying Under 8.5 assists, but the juice on that was too high to even think about playing it (-144 at Pinnacle and around 135 and up other places), so we moved along to a side play from this Game 5 showdown.
The spread is sitting at -10 on the home side Thunder. Even when accounting for one of the lightest benches in the league, and a rotation that makes their backers cringe every time Jokic is off the floor, we’re not going to bail on them in this spot, getting double digit points.
Sure, they’ve been whacked a couple of times this post-season, notably Game 3 against the Clippers and Game 2 in this series are fresh in our minds, – but this is a Nugget team that has, for the most part, been resilient, hanging around in games that at times, looked like they were going to badly lose control of. That resilience is what we’re going to rely on backing them as a big underdog.
They’re not intimidated by playing in these big spots, vs. top level teams. The Thunder certainly fit the description of a top-level team, particularly when playing on their homecourt. They’re explosive, young, energetic and deep. Pretty much the opposite of this Denver roster. But they have been known to struggle in clutch time situations.
The Nuggets, on the other hand, seem to spend the vast majority time in high pressure scenarios, both in the regular season and these playoffs. Despite Nikola Jokic playing below his usual standard – his recent form hitting FGs has not been impressive – Denver is getting help from Murray, Gordon and Braun. As to Porter, who knows. He might flash in this game, but he also has a better chance of being almost unplayable. Which brings us to Russell Westbrook. The Westbrook experience brings a lot with it, both good and bad, but the good is winning the day most nights.
We’re seeing some value in this 10-point spread in a matchup that the Nuggets, if they can get an improved performance out of Jokic, can not only keep close and take right down to the wire, but could win. Denver doesn’t need to be perfect to stay within the number.
We like them to cover this one.
Play: Nuggets +10