Right around 10:00pm ET tonight, barring an extended overtime session, Maple Leaf Nation will either be flooding the streets like its 1967 (the last time they won the Cup), or crushing handfuls of Zoloft into their post-game cocktails. There’s rarely any in-between for a fanbase that has been deprived of playoff-success for years. They ride way too high over every win, and get pulled into a swirl of fear, anxiety and doom after each loss.
Tonight’s Game 5 matchup back home after two straight losses in Florida will put those peaks and valleys to the test. This is a gut-check game for the core four that have been at the wheel for too many years of spring time disappointments. Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and Morgan Reilly are up. It’s go time for this crew, and you can throw team President Brendan Shanahan into the mix as well. Another early round playoff exit and everything is on the table. A loss tonight, after being up 2-0 in the series, is going to create a huge hill to climb to win the next two, one on the road, vs. the defending champs.
Florida Panthers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Game 5 Pick
As mentioned above, the Panthers bashed their way back into this series with that sweep in Sunrise. This isn’t a team that was going to go away because they dropped back-to-back on the road. The series now heads back to Canada again. Adding to the home ice edge is the extra day of rest on the schedule for this matchup (they didn’t play last night, as is usual in the playoffs). We feel that should slightly benefit the home team .
Toronto has been tough to beat at home all year, including in the playoffs thus far. Looking at recent form, over the last month, since March 15th, the Leafs have played a combination of 12 regular season and playoff games on home ice, putting together an 11-1-0 record.
Aside from the sparkling record, every game has its own storyline and specific characteristics. Sure, the Leafs have showed well in front of the home crowd. But this is a Florida team that has given them problems whenever they’ve matched up all season.
We are concerned about the edge the Panthers have clearly had when it comes to creating high quality chances from danger areas, notably the slot, when these two are 5-on-5. That’s been messy for the Leafs. Maybe if Matthews feels like spending more time in the slot tonight they can balance that out. In goal, whether it’s Woll or Stolarz tonight (likely Woll) they’re fine. Bobrovsky hasn’t been outplaying them in net.
The line is intriguing to us. We’re getting +127 (at Pinny) and see a lot of +120s out there. We see value in playing the home underdog in this one. If the Leafs top line can show up and play even, or even win their matchups, they’ll book a win (one caveat being as long as they avoid taking a handful more penalties). The second line has been fine(ish) with Nylander and Tavares.
Despite this crew failing to rise to the occasion at times in games with the most at stake, we’ll back them here at this number, as a home underdog.
Play: We’re on the Maple Leafs at +120 to +127