Greg Dempson has a play from the LA Chargers vs. Houston Texans game Saturday afternoon to kick-off the NFL Wild Card schedule. Greg also looks at that Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers matchup, with a play on the side, and a Total play from the Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles Saturday matchup.
LA Chargers vs. Houston Texans
CJ Stroud has excelled as an underdog, boasting a 6-2 straight-up, and 7-1 ATS, record in games where the Texans had a sub-.600-win percentage. On the defensive side, Houston held opposing quarterbacks to an 83.7 passer rating this season, the third best mark in the league.
The Chargers played their starters for the entire game in Sunday’s 34-20 win over the Raiders. Los Angeles now has to travel to Houston on a short week, while the Texans have essentially been resting since Christmas. The Chargers had the first bye of the season in Week 5, meaning they have played every week since early October. This is also the Chargers’ third road game in a row, including a cross-country trip to New England in Week 17. Per ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Chargers also played the easiest schedule in the league this season.
SYSTEM
A blend of a trend and system, but here’s numbers related to this one.
Play “On” NFL home underdogs in their first postseason playoff game. This system is 24-10-1 against the spread (70.5%). This highlights a play on the Texans.
Pick: I’m on the Texans getting +3 at home in this Wild Card Week opening game.
Good luck.