Bookended between the pay-per-view in Sydney last week and the return of UFC to Seattle for the first time since 2013, is this Fight Night card on home turf at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas. Perhaps not surprisingly, this one doesn’t deliver the biggest bang in terms of star power, but looking over the card, it does have the potential to serve up an entertaining evening of matchups, including the main event between Gregory Rodrigues vs. Jared Cannonier that we have circled for a pick suggestion this week.
Good luck and enjoy the card!
Gregory Rodrigues vs. Jared Cannonier
Odds: Gregory Rodrigues (-205) vs. Jared Cannonier (+175)
Main Event: Middleweight – 185 Pounds
This week’s card, particularly the main card, features the middleweight division, with three matchups in the 185-pound weight class, including the main bout matching up Brazilian Gregory Rodrigues, the favorite, against the perennial Top 10er Jared Cannonier. With these two, it should be bombs away from the start, as both have a similar approach – they are both looking to end their bouts with knockouts, throwing those heavy punches.
Cannonier is the far more experienced fighter, which one would expect as he’s celebrated his 40th birthday. Despite a couple of bad losses recently, he’s still held that Top 10 rankings, settling into the seventh spot. This is an important fight for him at this point in his career. Aside from almost assuredly falling out of the Top with a loss this weekend, it could have larger implications as he makes decisions about what next steps could be for him. It wasn’t that long ago that he was facing off with, and beating, the top of the ladder in this division, but those last two losses, to Caio Borralho and Nassourdine Imavov, respectively, have raised some obvious questions. He didn’t look great in either bout. He was slow, or slower at least, and at his age, facing younger opponents, it makes sense to ask if it’s all caught up to him, and he’s lost what was left of his fastball (to mix metaphors and sports).
Saturday evening he’ll take on another younger, skilled opponent, marking his third time in the cage in the last eight months! That’s a lot of mileage on a 40-year old body. Rodrigues is a beast, no question, and will enjoy a clear size advantage, clearing Cannonier by three inches and an appreciable amount of weight. He’s won his last three, but it’s important to note he hasn’t faced off vs. this division’s top fighters, which Cannonier has. This is a real step up for him.
When this one starts, where Rodrigues could find himself in trouble is his reliance on his chain, willing to take shots to give shots. Cannonier can’t be considered fast, but he can be explosive, and brings legwork that should serve him well. Rodrigues might try to take advantage of Cannonier’s recent heavy schedule, and age, looking to wear him down, while waiting for an opportunity to get in a knockout blow, but on the other side of that, is leaving yourself open to an opponent with tons of experience and a high fight IQ.
I like the style set-up for an underdog that has a legitimate shot at winning this one, and staying relevant in this division.
Play: Let’s take Jared Cannonier at +175 to get the win.